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Causes of Global Warming

 

 

 


Causes of Global Warming

 

 

January 13, 2009

Existence and significance of the consensus

 

Proponents of the existence of a consensus about human responsibility in global warming based on the position of several scientific institutions and the number of climate scientists involved in the analysis of the IPCC. This consensus has sometimes been questioned by politicians, particularly the United States. But according to a study published in the journal Science by a historian of science, Naomi Oreske, analysis of 928 abstracts of scientific articles selected from a database using the keywords “climate change” and published between 1993 and 2003 shows that none of them challenged the consensus established by the IPCC. In 2005, a British anthropologist Benny Peiser challenged those results in an against-study. He said finding a number of articles denying the consensus. Peiser’s work has been subjected himself to criticism, such as not being limited to articles reviewed by committees of reading or to have improperly classified a number of articles among those rejecting the consensus. In 2006, Peiser admitted that the vast majority of climatologists is agreed with the argument that global warming is caused by human action but that was far from unanimous.

In addition, the United States, a petition was signed by more than 31,000 graduates from all scientific disciplines (more than 500 in atmospheric science and climatology and 9,000 doctors in all disciplines, calling into question the argument that the emission of greenhouse gases would cause a “catastrophic warming. The former president of the National Academy of Sciences, Frederick Seitz has supported this petition. Critics of the petition a point considered misleading which give the impression to potential signatories of an official publication of the National Academy of Science. The specialist in atmospheric chemistry Raymond Pierrehumbert also denounces the fact that the petition was accompanied by an article full of half truths presented as a takeover of an article published in a scientific journal. Finally, some are questioning the number of signatures stressing the impossibility of verification and a few oddities in the list.

In 2008 a report was published NIPCC of (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change), written by Professor Fred Singer, with the collaboration of 24 scientists at the highest level. This report, including a French translation was published, says that this is the kind that changes the climate, not humans, and makes a severe criticism of the IPCC and its methods.

Character exceptional warming

The climate variations knows fair and a number of observers and scientists noted that the current warming is part of these variations.

Thus, a recent warming, the medieval climate optimum, took place in the Middle Ages, followed by a cooling period, the little ice age, leading to major changes in the extent of glaciers. It is believed that they were shorter in 1200 BC today, before rising raw ice between the fourteenth and the end of the nineteenth. Some walkways of ancient Rome are still covered by glaciers.

At the optimum medieval culture of the vine has grown in England. In addition, the Vikings have settled in the same period in Greenland, the name of this country, meaning “green countries in Danish.

In contrast, the arguments for not overestimate global warming based on the fact that on the one hand, the vines grow still in Britain, other than the name of Greenland has been chosen by explorer Erik the Red in order to attract settlers in 5000 and that their settlements were limited to the south of the island. The Histoire_du_Groenland shows that the Vikings were very poorly adapted to their environment unlike Inuit who replaced. The Vikings lived mainly on agriculture and livestock.

Criticism of the hypothesis of an increase in greenhouse

  • The impact of human activity on global warming is illustrated by a comparison between the temperatures of weekdays and weekends in 2003, a U.S. study conducted by Forster on 30 years and more than 1,000 stations shows that the temperature of the weekend, 0.5 ° C on average, are stronger than other days of the week. This difference between weekdays and weekends is correlated with the weekly cycle of human activity (high and low this week on the weekend).

  • Another argument made by scientists who doubt that human activity is responsible for the warming of the Earth is that the same phenomenon is also observed on Mars, and there is even up to four times faster , but there is no human activity on Mars, which may lead to believe that the cause is the cause of two observations. This hypothesis is however rejected by climatologists support the hypothesis that man, according to them, the causes of Mars are warming to this planet, and in no way linked to an external source, including solar, which would be shared with the Earth. Of warming would also measured 4 on other bodies in the solar system (Neptune, Jupiter, Triton, Pluto)

For Neptune, the explanation comes from its position on its orbit now ( “Summer” Neptunien) Explanation similar Triton. Jupiter is in a period where its giant storms merge, leading to an inability of the planet to more evenly distribute its temperature.Observations on the warming of Pluto are 2, separated by 14 years, and therefore does not draw any conclusion.

  • Since 2002, the AQUA satellite of NASA makes accurate measurements of the cycle of atmospheric water vapor, the main greenhouse gas, clouds and precipitation in order to better understand the feedbacks in the evolution of atmospheric temperature. In June 2008, Dr. Roy Spencer (scientist), after analyzing data, concludes that, contrary to models used by various research centers, the atmospheric water makes a strong negative feedback to the greenhouse effect and that the assessment of global warming should be strongly reduced.

  • Beginning in 2008, Ferenc Miskolczi, Hungarian physicist, publishes an article in a scientific journal of Hungary, which presents a new model of the “greenhouse effect confined in an atmosphere over semi-transparent.” His study concludes that the influence of greenhouse gases on global warming is overstated by the IPCC and to look for other causes global warming.

Assumption of fluctuations in solar activity

Solar activity since the year 900, as measured by the change in amount of carbon 14 compared to the current in the woods (there were more solar activity and there was less carbon 14 produced in the atmosphere and the wood of the time, because the solar wind becomes cosmic rays that produce carbon-14)

The Maunder Minimum is a shortfall in the number of sunspots between 1645 and 1715. A century after the Maunder Minimum occurred minimum Dalton. Notwithstanding these minimum periods is very clearly a variation in the number of sunspots, the next solar cycle of about 11 years.

During the Little Ice Age the Maunder Minimum is a period, roughly between 1645 and 1715 during which the number of sunspots, and hence the magnetic field of the Sun and all forms of activity that follows, was significantly lower today.

In 1997, Danish physicists Eigil Friis-Christensen and Svensmark announce Hensik have established a correlation between past changes in climate, cloud cover and solar activity. They believe a strong solar activity would lead to a decrease in the flow of cosmic rays of galactic origin, reducing the ionization of the atmosphere and causing a lesser training nuclear freezing and condensation. Cloud cover would be reduced, reducing the albedo of the planet and thus warming.

This thesis is given in March 2007 in the movie of television producer Martin Durkin,which collects in the film (subtitled in French) The Great Global Warming Swindle (The great scam of global warming). The film cites a study from 2005 Ján Veizer (Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center, University of Ottawa), showing the correlation at different time scales, and the influences from other types of cosmic rays with including an influence on the evaporation of water and cloud cover. The list of 20 persons (18 researchers) is available in the article The Great Global Warming Swindle (Contributors to the program). For them, thanks to studies of correlations, fluctuations in solar radiation have a much greater influence on the change in climate that releases of CO2by the man.

This film has received strong criticism from the Royal Society and the Met Office, who published a case against in-8 points.

Arguments against

Shortly after the presentation of the theory of Friis-Christensen and Svensmark, the American Paul Damon and Danish Peter Laut said to have found errors in the data cited to support their hypothesis. In addition, a reduction of cloud albedo decrease certainly, but also decreases the impact of the greenhouse effect and it is unclear whether the final results in a warming or cooling of the atmosphere. Finally, the role of cosmic rays in the creation of condensation nuclei is discussed, particularly in the lower layers of the atmosphere where aerosols appear to play a dominant role. In addition, Eigil Friis-Christensen said in 2002 that the correlation climate-solar activity not occurring since the 1980s.

In 2001, Peter Stott and other researchers at the Hadley Center of the United Kingdom have published an article on the model of numerical simulation the most comprehensive ever done on the twentieth century. Their study included both officers natural forcing (solar variations and volcanic emissions) and anthropogenic forcing(greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosol form). Like Thejll and Lassen, they found that natural factors explaining a gradual warming until 1960, followed by a return to temperatures close to those of the late nineteenth century, in agreement with the gradual change solar forcing during the twentieth century and the volcanic activity in recent decades. These factors alone could not explain the warming of recent decades. Similarly, the anthropogenic forcing alone could not explain the warming of the 1910-1945 period, but may be necessary to simulate the warming since 1976. However, combining all these factors, the team Stott was able to accurately simulate changes in global temperatures during the twentieth century. They predicted that the continuous emission of greenhouse gases cause temperature rises of the future “at a pace similar to that observed in recent decades.” A graph of the relationship between the natural factors and contributing to anthropogenic climate change is contained in the reportClimate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis of the IPCC.

In the May 6 edition of 2000 of U.S. magazine New Scientist, Lassen and astrophysicist Peter Thejll supplementing the 1991 study with new data, concluded that although the solar cycle can explain about half of the increase in temperature observed since 1900, he could not in any way explain the increase of 0.4 ° C since 1980.

In 1991, Knud Lassen of the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen and his colleague Eigil Friis-Christensen [58] have found a strong correlation between the length of the solar cycle and changes in temperature in the northern hemisphere. Initially, they had included sunspots and temperature measurements taken between 1861 and 1989, but later noticed that records dating back four centuries confirmed their discovery. This correlation could explain 80% of temperature changes during the period. This study, and the graphics were subsequently challenged, as based on incorrect values. Sallie Baliunas, an astronomer Center for Astrophysics at Harvard-Smithsonian Institution, was one of the most ardent supporters of the theory that solar activity “may explain the changes of climate in the last 300 years, particularly current global warming. “ However, the data show that the correlation between temperature and solar activity is no longer valid for the last thirty years, it remained roughly constant.

In 2007, the fourth report of the IPCC estimates that the radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases produced by human activity is ten times greater than that due to solar radiation.

 

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Biography

Since 1962 I doubted on Newton's laws. I did not accept the infinitive speed and I found un-vivid the laws of gravity and time.

I learned the Einstein's Relativity, thus I found some answers for my questions. But, I had another doubt of Infinitive Mass-Energy. And I wanted to know why light has stable speed?

 


 

 

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